BND - They always miss the same way

🧩 BND Motif Index · M1747

They always miss the same way

The polls are said to err in the same direction cycle after cycle, undercounting one side, so that side is expected to beat its numbers again and races are re-read by adding the last error back.

🪨 Beliefs 🗂️ Horserace 🗂️ Elections

13claims filed under it
7left shows it came up on
6center shows it came up on
12right shows it came up on

⚠️ A story people tell, not a claim that it's true.

A motif is the shape of a story as its tellers tell it, named the way a folklorist names a tale type, so the same story told about other people, by the other side or in another year lands in the same place. Some of the claims below are true, many are false. Arguing against a story is often a story of its own, its answer (Voter fraud is answered by Voter suppression, Lawfare by No one is above the law), and we file it there; where no answer has a motif yet, the arguments against a story sit with its tellings.

what it rests on, what rests on it, and the motifs that answer it

🪜 rests on 🧩 Polls are inaccurate

↔️ answers and mirrors:

🧩 The miss cuts both ways its answer

the shows we follow where its claims came up (7 left-leaning, 6 center, 12 right-leaning so far), colored by the show's lean; the bar is how many of its claims each one heard

left-leaning
center
right-leaning

➕ 13 more shows

"Came up on" means one of its claims was heard on the show: told, reported or argued against. We don't yet mark which. Show leans are our own grouping of the shows we transcribe.

what's been told in this shape, in our words, by who told it: newest first in each; a claim's dots are the shows it came up on, in their lean's color (point at them for their names)

Told on the left 3

claims heard on left-leaning shows, and no right-leaning one

2026-11-02 “Polls in recent presidential elections undersampled white voters who do not vote often but showed up for Donald Trump.” 2
2026-11-01 “Democrats could end up with as few as 47 Senate seats if there is a major poll miss.” 2
2026-10-20 “A repeat of recent polling misses could result in a Democratic supermajority in the Senate.” 2

Told on the right 6

claims heard on right-leaning shows, and no left-leaning one

2026-10-31 “Republicans would maintain control of the Senate if previous polling biases persist.” 2
2026-10-24 “Polls often undercount Republican Trump voters in key states.” 1
2026-10-23 “Republicans could win a 50-50 Senate if they outperform their September polls as they have in previous years.” 2
2026-10-20 “If polls underestimate Republicans by more than three points, they will hold the House.” 3
2026-10-15 “Polls have been inaccurate because they consistently undersample Republicans.” 3
2026-10-05 “Pollsters consistently underestimate conservative voters and overestimate leftist voters.” 2

Told on both sides 4

claims heard on left- and right-leaning shows alike

2026-10-29 “Polls have a systemic bias that overstates Democratic results.” 14
2026-10-27 “Republicans will win 52 Senate seats if they continue to outperform the polls as they have in recent cycles.” 4
2026-10-27 “Polling has underestimated Republicans in past presidential election cycles.” 4
2026-10-21 “Polls have been wrong about Donald Trump in the past.” 5

M1747 · first seen 2026-11-09 · last 2026-11-03 · what this is · how the index works

They always miss the same way

🪜 Its family

🎙️ Who it came up with

🎙️ 13 more shows

🧶 Its claims

Told on the left 3

Told on the right 6

Told on both sides 4

🪜 Its family

🎙️ Who it came up with

🎙️ 13 more shows

🧶 Its claims

🫏 Told on the left 3

🐘 Told on the right 6

⚖️ Told on both sides 4

Told on the left 3

Told on the right 6

Told on both sides 4