🧩 BND Motif Index · M432
Polls are inaccurate
Voters think the polls are inaccurate and untrustworthy.
🪨 Beliefs🗂️ Horserace🗂️ Elections
- 21claims filed under it
- 2left shows it came up on
- 3center shows it came up on
- 10right shows it came up on
- 1claim retold online
⚠️ A story people tell, not a claim that it's true.
A motif is the shape of a story as its tellers tell it, named the way a folklorist names a tale type, so the same story told about other people, by the other side or in another year lands in the same place. Some of the claims below are true, many are false. Arguing against a story is often a story of its own, its answer (Voter fraud is answered by Voter suppression, Lawfare by No one is above the law), and we file it there; where no answer has a motif yet, the arguments against a story sit with its tellings.
🪜 Its family
what it rests on, what rests on it, and the motifs that answer it
🪜 rests on 🧩 They're losing, actually!
⤵️ under it: 🧩 Polls are manipulated
🔗 goes with: 🧩 A snapshot, not a prediction 🧩 Shy Tory 🧩 The fundamentals
🎙️ Who it came up with
the shows we follow where its claims came up, by the show's lean
🫏 left 2
🎙️ No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen 🎙️ Pod Save America
"Came up on" means one of its claims was heard on the show: told, reported or argued against. We don't yet mark which. Show leans are our own grouping of the shows we transcribe.
🧶 Its claims
what's been told in this shape, newest first, in our words, with where each was heard
- 2026-10-27 “Republicans will win 52 Senate seats if they continue to outperform the polls as they have in recent cycles.”
🎙️ The Michael Berry Show 🎙️ Bannon's War Room - 2026-10-27 “Pollsters are failing to understand the electorate because they cannot predict voter turnout.”
🎙️ Ruthless 🎙️ The Michael Berry Show - 2026-10-24 “Media polls are less trustworthy than polls conducted by campaign consultants.”
🎙️ Fox News Rundown - 2026-10-24 “Polls are more likely to be underestimating Democrats than Republicans.”
🎙️ No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen 🎙️ The Jesse Kelly Show 🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton 🎙️ Breaking Points 🎙️ 1A (WAMU/NPR) - 2026-10-24 “Polls often undercount Republican Trump voters in key states.”
🎙️ The Mark Levin Show 🎙️ Bannon's War Room - 2026-10-23 “Polling data regarding who is voting early lacks complete accuracy.”
🎙️ The Michael Berry Show - 2026-10-23 “Susan Collins has a history of winning elections despite losing every single poll.”
🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton 🎙️ Ruthless - 2026-10-23 “Legitimate polls cannot be accurate in the era of Donald Trump.”
🎙️ The Benny Show 🎙️ Louder with Crowder - 2026-10-22 “Pollsters make biased assumptions about the electorate because response rates have changed.”
🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton - 2026-10-22 “Pollsters may fail to reach rural voters in states like Iowa and Kansas.”
🎙️ 1A (WAMU/NPR) 🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton - 2026-10-21 “Polls have been wrong about Donald Trump in the past.”
🎙️ The Megyn Kelly Show - 2026-10-20 “Pollsters can be extremely inaccurate, as seen in Iowa.”
🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton - 2026-10-20 “A repeat of recent polling misses could result in a Democratic supermajority in the Senate.”
🎙️ Pod Save America 🎙️ Breaking Points - 2026-10-20 “If polls underestimate Republicans by more than three points, they will hold the House.”
🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton 🎙️ Breaking Points - 2026-10-19 “Polls are worthless and people must vote in overwhelming numbers to prevent Republican cheating and intimidation.” 🧶 people online
- 2026-10-16 “Pollsters may be failing to find or connect with Trump voters.”
🎙️ Top Story with Tom Llamas (NBC) - 2026-10-14 “Pollsters have historically undercounted rural voters, leading to skewed election results.”
🎙️ Clay Travis & Buck Sexton 🎙️ Breaking Points - 2026-10-13 “Susan Collins' history of polling poorly while winning big makes her position in Maine look better for Republicans.”
🎙️ Fox News Rundown - 2026-10-12 “Polls may miss Republicans who won't talk to pollsters or rarely vote.”
🎙️ Breaking Points - 2026-10-05 “Pollsters consistently underestimate conservative voters and overestimate leftist voters.”
🎙️ Bannon's War Room 🎙️ Louder with Crowder - 2026-08-15 “Francesca Hong was leading in polls but lost despite that.” 🗳️ voters in The Focus Group
M432 · first seen 2026-10-05 · last 2026-10-27 · what this is · how the index works