๐งฉ BND Motif Index ยท M731
The war isn't going well
Losses, setbacks and empty arsenals pile up in the reports, and each new count is read as a sign that the war is going badly, whatever the leaders say.
- 12claims filed under it
- 4left shows it came up on
- 1center show it came up on
- 1right show it came up on
- 3claims retold online
โ ๏ธ A story people tell, not a claim that it's true.
A motif is the shape of a story as its tellers tell it, named the way a folklorist names a tale type, so the same story told about other people, by the other side or in another year lands in the same place. Some of the claims below are true, many are false. Arguing against a story is often a story of its own, its answer (Voter fraud is answered by Voter suppression, Lawfare by No one is above the law), and we file it there; where no answer has a motif yet, the arguments against a story sit with its tellings.
๐ช Its family
what it rests on, what rests on it, and the motifs that answer it
โคต๏ธ under it: ๐งฉ Running out of ammo
๐ goes with: ๐งฉ Five O'Clock Follies ๐งฉ Short-term war miscalculation ๐งฉ The war is escalating
๐๏ธ Who it came up with
the shows we follow where its claims came up, by the show's lean
๐ซ left 4
๐๏ธ The Bulwark Podcast ๐๏ธ The Kyle Kulinski Show ๐๏ธ The MeidasTouch Podcast ๐๏ธ The Young Turks (podcast)
โ๏ธ center 1
๐ right 1
"Came up on" means one of its claims was heard on the show: told, reported or argued against. We don't yet mark which. Show leans are our own grouping of the shows we transcribe.
๐ฐ In the news
the stories its claims were told about, the most told first (matched by our tools, so a link can be wrong)
- ๐ฐ U.S. military reports 81 aircraft lost or damaged in Iran war 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-09
๐งถ Its claims
what's been told in this shape, newest first, in our words, with where each was heard
- 2026-10-25 โRussian military losses in Ukraine have exceeded 1.5 million personnel.โ ๐งถ people online
- 2026-10-24 โUkraine cannot win the war on the battlefield due to manpower shortages and Russian artillery advantages.โ
๐๏ธ The Young Turks (podcast) ๐๏ธ The Jesse Kelly Show ๐๏ธ The Tim Dillon Show - 2026-10-24 โThe U.S. Navy has been reduced to a smuggling ring, moving fractions of the oil that used to leave the Strait of Hormuz.โ
๐๏ธ The MeidasTouch Podcast - 2026-10-22 โUkraine cannot win a war of attrition because it lacks the population and the will to fight.โ
๐๏ธ The Young Turks (podcast) ๐๏ธ The Jesse Kelly Show ๐๏ธ The Tim Dillon Show - 2026-10-22 โU.S. military bases are being destroyed by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones.โ
๐๏ธ The MeidasTouch Podcast - 2026-10-13 โThe Trump regime has depleted the United States' supply of interceptors and weapons due to massive military spending.โ
๐๏ธ The MeidasTouch Podcast - 2026-10-10 โThe U.S. military has lost or sustained damage to 81 military aircraft worth up to $3.3 billion in the war with Iran.โ ๐งถ people online
- 2026-10-09 โThe United States is in a weak position to win a long-term war of attrition due to depleted petroleum reserves.โ
๐๏ธ The Kyle Kulinski Show - 2026-10-09 โThe U.S. military has lost or sustained damage to 81 aircraft in the Iran war, with replacement costs reaching up to $3.3 billion.โ ๐งถ people online
- 2026-10-09 โTrump is unlikely to accept a policy of walking away from the conflict due to political realities.โ
๐๏ธ Breaking Points - 2026-10-08 โThe Trump administration's handling of Middle Eastern conflicts is characterized by incompetence and recklessness.โ
๐๏ธ The MeidasTouch Podcast - 2026-10-08 โDonald Trump has led the country into a disastrous war in the Middle East.โ
๐๏ธ The Bulwark Podcast
M731 ยท first seen 2026-10-10 ยท last 2026-10-25 ยท what this is ยท how the index works